Opportunity vs. Success

While our Timber to Table late season cow hunts typically have darn near 100% success, our Dark Timber Outfitters hunts do not.  I wish they did and we’ve certainly had some seasons where we’ve done really well.  But public land elk hunts are an incredible challenge and even with a great outfit, a 100% success rate is tough to achieve.

Success rates for an outfitter can paint a certain picture of how good a hunt was.  But it can also be a little misleading.  Say you have two hunters. Hunter 1 may go out opening morning and sit right where their guide tells them to sit and at first light, a bull pops out of the timber at 200 yards.  The hunter shoots, the elk goes down and the hunt is over.  Tag punched in 10 minutes.  This is certainly a great way for a hunt to play out and we’re always grateful for those gifts from the elk gods. 

During the same season, Hunter 2 spends 5 full days hiking, climbing, sitting, waiting, looking at elk through their scope but not quite having a shot, glassing elk with their binoculars from afar and planning a stalk, grabbing a wilderness nap (aka “wilder-nap) on the forest floor here and there, telling stories and laughing with their guide while overlooking an aspen stand, watching every sunrise and sunset, having a few really close calls over the course of their hunt…but ultimately not connecting on an elk.  Hunter 2 had an equally memorable hunt because of the fullness of the experience.

Who had the better hunt?  I think you could say they both had good hunts but when someone asks “What was the success rate?” the answer would boil down to a very understated reply of “50%”. 

Opportunity rates, along with success rates, can paint a more complete picture of the quality of a hunt.  At Dark Timber Outfitters, here’s how we define opportunity:

For archery, a legal elk within approximately 40 yards or closer.  The opportunity is there but perhaps the elk’s vitals were blocked by a tree or a hunter passed on a cow in hopes of killing a bull.  The guide did their job, the hunter had an opportunity, but it didn’t quite come together.

For muzzleloader, an opportunity depends a lot on the hunter’s comfort level with open sights on their firearm.  Sometimes this is a max distance of 75 yards, sometimes it’s 100-125.  But we consider an opportunity somewhere in that 100-yard range.

For rifle, we consider an opportunity to be a legal bull or cow, within 200-300 yards, again, depending on the hunter’s capabilities with their rifle.  Maybe the angle of the elk wasn’t allowing for an ethical shot or the hunter missed the shot.  But the guide did their job and things didn’t quite line up. 

The point in explaining all this is to give hunters a way to gauge how a hunt might go.  Measurable definitions and honest statistics allow for a hunter to know whether an outfitter is providing a really memorable experience or not. Success rate certainly tells part of the story and is always worth inquiring about, but opportunity rates usually provide a more detailed and complete depiction of how every hunter’s experience was during that particular season.

Every hunt isn’t going to be 100% success.  That’s a fact.  So Dark Timber Outfitters works hard to provide opportunities (which can lead to success) knowing that opportunities can be the unsung hero of an incredible elk hunt.

If you have questions about any of this, give a call or email.  And we hope you’ll get to capitalize on an elk hunting opportunity with us that’ll become an incredible memory for the rest of your life.  Thank you.